The Incredible, Edible Poker Hand Distribution

Sunday, April 05, 2009

As every self-respecting poker degenerate knows, there are 1,326 unique starting hands in the Texas Hold'em universe.

All 1,326 unique Texas Hold'em starting hands.

When you peek at your hole cards at the beginning of a hand, all of the 1,326 combinations are equally likely. Your chances of seeing [AhAs] are exactly the same as seeing [7d2c]. That is, the 1,326 starting hands are isometric with regard to probability: each has the same chance of occurring. So when you stare down at the opaque patterned backing of your hole cards prior to peeking at their undersides, you're not looking at a specific hand. You're looking at a probability cloud containing 1,326 possibilities, one of which will manifest when your hole cards are formally observed.

Prior to observation, a given player's hand isn't a hand; it's a probability cloud containing N distinct possibilities.

We call this probability cloud a hand distribution or a hand range and far from being a recondite mathematical theory of interest only to statisticians and poker geeks, it's one of the most powerful weapons we have in the battle against incomplete information. Good players use this weapon all the time, consciously or unconsciously. Every time a player deduces a piece of information, however vague, about an opponent's hand, he's creating a hand distribution.

My opponent has either Aces, Kings, Queens, or Ace-King. Not sure which. He's strong, though.
My opponent has two cards (any two cards) of a particular suit, for the flush. Or he might be bluffing the flush.
My opponent either has a set or an overpair.
My opponent has top pair with a good kicker.

Each of the above statements can be expressed precisely by assigning the opponent a distribution containing or more potential specific hands. For example, if the preflop action convinces you that your opponent has Aces, Kings, Queens, or Ace-King, you've assigned him a distribution—a probability cloud—containing 34 distinct possibilities, each of which is a specific two-card starting hand.

A distribution can be as small or as large as necessary to countenance all the possibilities. If you know an opponent's specific hole cards (perhaps you caught a glimpse of them), that opponent has a hand distribution containing a single hand. The probability of him having that hand is 1.0 or 100%. This is a truism, but a necessary one in order to normalize the underlying logic. Everything is a distribution. If everybody folds to you on the button and you're considering whether to raise, the small blind and the big blind (since their cards are completely unknown) have a random distribution containing every possible 2-card holding. After you raise, of course, and the small blind re-raises, you'll have to revise his distribution to take into account the new information. But you're always working in terms of distributions. Every player's hand at the table can and should be thought of as a distribution containing one or more hands.

Distributions have enormous utility because pinpointing an opponent's exact hole cards is difficult. Even when we're 95% certain our opponent has a given hand, there's always that pesky 5% chance he's splashing around with something else. And usually we won't be 95% certain; we'll be 75% certain, or 50% certain, or an unqualifiable amount of certain. And this is where one of the most common and egregious mistakes in poker is made, namely:

Playing in such a way as to maximize your value against the specific hand you believe your opponent has.

The thought process goes something like this:

Okay, I'm pretty sure my opponent has such-and-such a hand here. Yes. He raised preflop, I bet into him on the flop, now he's raising...yep, he's got such-and-such. I might be wrong here, but I'm gonna go with my read. I'm all-in / I fold / etc.

There's nothing wrong with making a read and sticking to it; the problem is that the above train of thought is usually indicative of a read that is too specific—far more specific than the available information warrants. When we put all our eggs into one basket by making a very precise, possibly incorrect deduction about an opponent's cards, and when we base our betting decisions on that deduction, we front-load the difficulty of poker onto our (flawed) ability to extract (incomplete) information from a (loosely-wired) poker situation.

In other words, we fall into the trap of deterministic strategy. We play as if our opponent had a specific hand.

Deterministic poker strategy flowchart

But until we actually observe an opponent's hand for ourselves, it's not a hand, it's a probablistic distribution of potential hands. Sometimes this distribution will coalesce, based on the available evidence, and we'll be able to say with confidence that the opponent is holding such-and-such a specific hand. But more often the distribution will contain a handful of possibilities. Our job is to play in such a way as to maximize our EV not against the single most-likely hand, but against the range of plausible hands an opponent could hold.

And in order to maximize our EV in situations involving multiple opponents with hand distributions, we have to know how to calculate our EV in situations involving multiple opponents with hand distributions, using available tools such as PokerStove and, of course, by writing code in our language of choice. Stay tuned.

Tags: probability, poker strategy, poker hand evaluation, poker bot, online poker, poker

52 comment(s)

I have you hooked up through Sage now. Great post. One of the clearest descriptions of this topic I've ever read. Still waiting for the code. Somebody should turn that diagram into a poster, btw...

Ed K. on Sunday, April 05, 2009

Good "food for thought"! ;-)

Anonymous on Sunday, April 05, 2009

Good description of a complex topic. I like how you pointed out that hand distributions should be normalized, meaning even when a player has a specific known hand, that's still a distribution...of one. I've written a lot equity computation code and treating everything as a distribution simplifies the logic tremendously. Waiting to see your take on the same topic.

JB Detroit on Sunday, April 05, 2009

Great article. "Oops. Guess I was wrong" ... Story of my life lol.

Poker Forums on Monday, April 06, 2009

great article;

my web is amauta.awardspace.com

alex on Monday, April 06, 2009

Hey James, how did you put together the picture of the 1326 hands & is there a larger version? Is there some sort of tool which generates this stuff?

JeremyX on Monday, April 06, 2009

With all the talk about "until an opponents hand is observed its just a probability distribution" I expected you to launch into an aside about quantum physics...!

This post is worth it just for the picture of the 1326 hands. I agree with the guy who said somebody should make a poster of it (if this hasn't been done).

Anonymous on Monday, April 06, 2009

1326 unique hands boiling down into 169 unique hands when you suck out redundant suit information.

Anonymous on Monday, April 06, 2009

The redundant suit information may become not so redundant when your nice straight gets cleaned out by a flush :-)

Anonymous on Monday, April 06, 2009

When you do the mental work involved in assessing the range of opponent hands, and breaking it down, you're doing a very simple and quick version of combinatorics. (See [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinatorics[/url]

Analyzing Limit Hold'em hands play post-game, and examining the combinatoric ranges of opponents hands, can often reveal situations where you should have bet because what you feared was so unlikely.

Shabbir on Monday, April 06, 2009

Interesting artcile, James. Always love reading your stuff. You mention PokerStove. What other helper applications do you use, if you don't mind me asking?

Cheers

Holysmokes99 on Monday, April 06, 2009

Pretty newbie-like content but presented as usual in a great way.

Indiana on Monday, April 06, 2009

Totally agree with the Anonymous guy who mentioned quantum physics.. Who knows, maybe you could use quantum physics principles to help your poker game :P .. Or well, at least as a nice analogy. I wonder if there's a good parallel to the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in poker. Can't think of anything right now, can anyone else?

[b]"The more precisely you can determine your opponent's hand distribution, the less precisely you can determine [u](fill in the blank)[u]"[/b]

ehsanul on Monday, April 06, 2009

oops..

Again, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle applied to poker (fill in the blank):

[i]"The more precisely you can determine your opponent's hand distribution, the less precisely you can determine _________"[/i]

ehsanul on Monday, April 06, 2009

I was about to say that for the HUP to apply, the act of observing an opponent's hole cards would have to effect a change in the state of the hole cards. That's sort of the point of the HUP, right? Then it occurred to me that only a rabidly angry geek would resist the glomming-together of poker and physics in such an awesome way. I will have to plagiarize this. ;-)

James Devlin on Monday, April 06, 2009

Everybody talks about hand ranges like oooh big man I'M 67% AGAINST HIS RANGE but you know what? In practice it is BS. Nobody thinks like that. They just write books pretending they think like that.

Seriously. Pet peeve.

Moneymaker on Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Good article. Although it's hard for human to think about hand ranges like that, it's an ideal model for poker AI program to analyze hands like that. To turn the poker AI into a winning AI, the next steps for the AI program are:

Modify the hand distribution other players may have according to their actions. You will need a hand history database to know your opponents better to help on this one.
Calculate EV for each hand and combine all the results together to make a decision about best choice for next action. This is a more difficult problem since you also need to take implied odds and future actions your opponents may take into consideration.

Barney on Tuesday, April 07, 2009

"If everybody folds to you on the button and you're considering whether to raise, the small blind and the big blind (since their cards are completely unknown) have a random distribution containing every possible 2-card holding."

Well, yes and no. If one of the players who folded had had AA or KK or AK they would certainly have opened. Therefore, the small and big blind have a slightly greater chance of holding an ace or a king than would have been evident at the start of the bidding. I agree that they can hold every hand, but it is now slightly more likely that they will have AA than 22.

Rather than thinking about a smaller collection of hands, each of which has the same probability, it is closer to the truth to think of a larger collection of hands, each of which has a different probability.

Not that this makes designing poker bot software easier, mind you. But perhaps we can think of the hand distribution as a multiple of 168 hand types, depending on the common cards. For instance, for a rainbow flop there are only 2x168 hand types, but a player would have been more likely to open with A9 if it is suited, even in the unseen suit. So we actually would have 3x168 probabilities to work with, the unsuited hand types (168), each numbering 12 instances, the missing suited hand types (168) with one instance and the still-flushable suited hand types (168), each with three instances. Although the probabilities of each instance of the last two are the same, the actions to be expected and the actions we want to take against them are different.

Tim on Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Oops, sorry, that's 169 instead of 168 above, of course.

Tim on Tuesday, April 07, 2009

I really, really disagree with Moneymaker on this one. It's not hard at all, given the right sort of boards, to easily assign an aggressive opponent to a narrow range. When you've 1/2 to 3/4s of the range beat, you bet, knowing the raise would be ok.

Shabbir on Wednesday, April 08, 2009

really nice post,

however, i think all depends on what is the limit you play ? In your example, when vilain reraise with the board A,T,2, you have to consider he has a set (AA,TT,22). btw, In NL2, your move is EV+++. In NL50, the previous read on vilain is important but still EV+ i guess. And after, NL 200+ .. this move is certainly EV-.

a player on Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Have to further correct my earlier post. I guess I shouldn't be posting so late at night :). There are originally 169 hand types. These can be split into the 13 pairs, which each have 6 instances, the 78 suited non-pair combinations with 4 instances each and the 78 unsuited non-pair combinations with 12 instances each. Each of these instances has a probability of 1/1326, but the hand types can also be juggled in a bot. Preflop, we can think of 13 pair hand types with a probability of 6/1326 each, 78 suited non-pair hand types at 4/1326 and 78 unsuited non-pairs at 12/1326.

Preflop, we can narrow down the likely distributions based on actions taken. If the first player to bid raises, we would skew their probability distribution for the hand types towards those we consider openable. A different skew would apply to a caller or a big blind who only has to check.

After additional cards are seen, we need to revise the probabilities for each hand type, and may need to split them up as well. For example, if the flop comes down with 3 hearts, then the spade, club and diamond suited hands that might have been opened are no longer flushable. So the hand type distributions change as well as their probabilities. The 78 suited hand types with 4 instances must be split into 78 hand type of the flushing suit (single instance) and the 78 hand types of the non-longer-flushable suits, with 3 instances. Similarly, the 78 unsuited hand types, 12 instances, must be split into those that contain a heart and those that don't. Finally, the pairs must be split into those that contain a heart and those that don't. So with this flop, the distributions we'll be looking at are numbered 78x1, 78x3, 78x6, 78x6, 13x3 and 13x3 respectively. These then will be further limited by eliminating those that are no longer possible because they contain a card that is visible on the board.

Tim on Wednesday, April 08, 2009

"I was about to say that for the HUP to apply, the act of observing an opponent's hole cards would have to effect a change in the state of the hole cards. That's sort of the point of the HUP, right?"

You're right, with HUP, the measurement of one quality makes some other quality completely uncertain (eg, precise measurement of a particle's position makes its momentum uncertain), due to the act of observing itself. It's not really a great fit with poker I suppose, which is sad.

The example of observing your opponent's cards is more analogous to the collapsing of a wave function in quantum mechanics, from a probabilistic distribution to a known state. At least that's a decent parallel. I'm sure there are others..

How about special relativity? Each player views the game according to their own frame of reference (their own hole cards), but the size of the pot (like the speed of light) appears the same to all players. Now surely, these premises should lead to an interesting and non-intuitive set of results, right? I mean, Einstein managed.

ehsanul on Wednesday, April 08, 2009

This reminds me of watching televised poker, in a situation where a player who holds two kings, sees a third king being deal - and they announce that this means it's unlikely that the other player has the "case king".

Statistically I can see that there is less chance of a king being drawn from the deck if there is only 1 left - but logically, I can't see that observing the king changed the actual probability of your opponent holding the "case king"

This one does my head it. If you put all the cards in a box with a cat I might be able to deal.

Orwellophile on Saturday, April 11, 2009

(PS - To the person who mention combinatorics or what not, just bear in mind it's permutations not combinations - there is a difference)

I believe that James has discussed this somewhere, although I haven't read it.

Orwellophile on Saturday, April 11, 2009

Sorry, I was "upside down, miss jane."

Combinations are unordered, Permutations are ordered.

Apologies.

Orwellophile on Saturday, April 11, 2009

"PS - To the person who mention combinatorics or what not, just bear in mind it's permutations not combinations - there is a difference"

Didn't click the link, eh?

bmm6o on Friday, April 17, 2009

Yeah, I had a bad case of foot-in-mouth-smartass that week.

Who would have thought playing poker and programming would result into so much math. [sic]. I spent at least 20 minutes trying to read about the Nash Equilibrium, and all I can tell you is that it's not as good as the movie.

Orwellophile on Saturday, April 18, 2009

absolutely ridiculous and unintelligent misleading article!

the chances of being dealt 72o are far more than being dealt a pocket pair

how stupid can you get?

Ady Miles on Monday, November 02, 2009

@Ady: you misunderstand. The chances of being dealt a specific two-card combo (eg, 7h2s) are the same as being dealt any other specific two-card combo (eg, Ah Ac). You are confusing agnostic percentages (AA vs 72o) with specific percentages (AhAc vs. 7h2s).

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tiffany jewelry on Friday, July 30, 2010

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miu miu bags on Friday, July 30, 2010

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abercrombie and fitch on Friday, July 30, 2010

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hermes birkin on Friday, July 30, 2010

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mbt shoes on Friday, July 30, 2010

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mbt shoes on Friday, July 30, 2010

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